Assessing company financial health with Altman Z-Score

In early 60's, Dr. Edward Altman (Professor and Vice-Director of New York University's Salomon Center, Leonard N. Stern School of Business) has used Multiple Discriminant Analysis to combine a set of 5 financial ratios and developed the famous Altman's Z-Score.

Nowadays, Altman's Z-Score is being used by many to assess a company's financial health. For instance, investors use it to determine if the company is worth for investment, bankers use it to determine loan risk, etc.

The 5 financial ratios used are:

• A = Return on Total Assets = EBIT / Total Assets
• B = Sales to Total Assets = Net Sales / Total Assets
• C = Equity to Debt = Market Value / Total Liabilities
• D = Working Capital to Total Assets = Working Capital / Total Assets
• E = Retained Earnings to Total Assets = Retained Earnings / Total Assets

Different weight factor is applied to the above 5 financial ratios, and the formula to calculate Altman's Z-Score is:

Z = 3.3A + 0.999B + 0.6C + 1.2D + 1.4E

The final result will yield a number between -4 and +8. The higher the score is better.

According to the Altman's Z-Score analysis:

• When Z is less than 1.8, the company is very likely to have financial trouble
• When Z is between 1.8 and 2.7, the company's financial situation is fair, and there is risk of getting into financial trouble
• When Z is between 2.7 and 2.99, the company is not likely to have financial trouble in the near future
• When Z > 3, the company is financially strong

Note that C which includes the market value of the company, is determined by its share price, and very much influenced by the investment market sentiment. However, C also carries the least weightage, and Return on Total Assets is the most important factor, which I think most fundamentalists are agreeing with.

Over the past 30+ years, Altman's Z-Score was found to be pretty usable to assess company financial health, with accuracy of above 70%.

Altman's Z-Score is a good tool to predict for investment safety, but bear in mind that it is not a tool designed to predict for investment profitability.

The Ching Ming Festival

The Ching Ming Festival (清明节) in year 2009 falls on 4th April.

Ching Ming Festival is the 106th day after the Winter Solstice Day (冬至), and falls around 5th of April of the Gregorian calendar (solar calendar), which is also the 15th days from the Spring Equinox (春分).

Ching Ming is an important traditional Chinese festival celebrated by the Han Clan (汉族) for over 2,500 years. Today, this festival is also celebrated by other Chinese clans as well.

Ching (清) in Chinese translated to "Clear" or "Pure", and Ming (明) translated to "Bright". Therefore, Ching Ming Festival is also known as Clear Brightness Festival or Pure Brightness Festival.

The ancient Chinese is an agricultural society. Ching Ming Festival indicates the time to start farming for the year. When Ching Ming arrives, the cold weather from previous winter begins to turn warm, there will be more rains, plants and animals show their active sign of life again. Therefore, Ching Ming is the day of transition from Ying (阴) back to Yang (阳), which brings more "clear" and "brightness" to earth.

During the ancient time, the Chinese will take bath in the river to wash away unfortune and evil from the body (祓除畔浴). It was also a tradition for married women who wish to get pregnant to pray at the riverside for fertility.

Today, the Chinese has 2 major traditional activities for this festival. One is spring hiking (踏青) which can be family outings, young couples start courting, swinging, flying kites, kicking ball, planting trees, etc. Another major activity is tomb sweeping (扫墓), which is to visit the grave of departed family members or ancestors, sweep and clean the tombs, pray and offer the ancestors.

The activities might not be carried out on the actual day of Ching Ming, and can be any days within a month (normally within 2 weeks) from the actual day.

2009 new income tax PCB deduction rate

If you are an employee with taxable income, have you notice from your monthly payslip that the Potongan Cukai Bulanan (PCB, a.k.a. Scheduled Monthly Tax Deduction) rate starting from year 2009 is different than before?

Yes, with the reason "to estimate the tax deduction more accurately", the schedule of PCB deduction has been revised.

Here are some of the changes that I observed by comparing the old schedule (PCB 2004) with the new one (PCB 2009):

• Now, a single person with monthly remuneration of RM2,401 and above is estimated to be taxable and eligible for the PCB deduction scheme, whereas previously was RM2,551 and above.
• Now a married person with 2 kids and spouse not working, will enter the PCB scheme when the monthly remuneration reaches RM3,251 and above, whereas previously was RM3,401 and above.
• Now a married person with 2 kids and spouse also working, will enter the PCB scheme when the monthly remuneration reaches RM2,551 and above, whereas previously was RM2,701 and above.
• Generally, those with monthly remuneration below RM10,000 will have their PCB deducted above 20% more than the old scheme, while those with monthly remuneration above RM10,000 will have their PCB deducted slightly less than the old scheme.

For example, if you are an unmarried person who earns RM4,010 per month, your salary should be deducted RM145 for the PCB, but under the new 2009 scheme, you will be deducted RM180 instead.
However, this new PCB deduction rate should not affect your overall income tax for the year. If you are over deducted from the PCB, you can claim back the extra income tax paid; and if you are under deducted, you will have to pay for the difference before the deadline of 30 April next year.

Click here to download the new PCB 2009 schedule table.

Click here to download the previous PCB 2004 schedule table.